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Chrystal ball for 2014 Mortgage Rate and Housing Outlook

January 17th, 2014 6:23 PM by Sam Kader

 

Pacific Coast  Financial LLC

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Key Mortgage Rate Indicators Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
30 Year FNMA Consumer Rate 4.875% 5.000% 5.062% 5.125% 5.250% 5.365% 5.500% 5.543% 5.625% 5.750% 5.855% 5.895%
Fannie Mae Benchmark Coupon 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.250 4.250 4.250 4.250 4.250 4.250 4.250
10YR Treasury Note Yield 2.950% 3.050% 3.070% 3.150% 3.180% 3.200% 3.250% 3.300% 3.350% 3.400% 3.450% 3.500%
Federal Reserve Monthly QE Purchases $75B $65B $65B $55B $55B $45B $45B $35B $35B $35B $25B $25B
Key Economic Indicators Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
GDP 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.62% 2.62% 2.62% 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%
Non Farm Payrolls 135K 160K 140K 110K 120K 140K 165K 185K 140K 120K 120K 120K
Unemployment Rate 6.70% 6.67% 6.65% 6.67% 6.65% 6.62% 6.59% 6.58% 6.58% 6.57% 6.57% 6.55%
Consumer Price Index 2.30 2.30 2.30 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Housing Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Existing Home Sales (units) 5.000M 5.001M 5.055M 5.100M 5.125M 5.132M 5.175M 5.200M 5.250M 5.255M 5.260M 5.267M
New Home Sales (units) 460K 470K 474K 480K 490K 501K 525K 535K 544K 555K 565K 575K
Median Home Price (Existing) 185K 186K 188K 195K 205K 214K 215K 216K 217K 212K 208K 204K
Median Home Price (New) 255K 258K 261K 265K 268K 273K 273K 273K 274K 273K 272K 272K
Housing Starts 1M 1.01M 1.015M 1.025M 1.055M 1.075M 1.10M 1.12M 1.145M 1.16M 1.18M 1.2M
Refinances as % of Originations 50% 49% 48% 44% 39% 36% 36% 35% 35% 34% 33% 32%

Employment - one of the key elements in driving home purchases. Here in Washington state - 2013 ended with an additional 4,800 jobs statewide pushing down the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 6.6%. The Seattle area which includes Bellevue and Everett added 10,100 led by hiring in service-sector businesses (mainly in aerospace and high-tech).

Posted in:General
Posted by Sam Kader on January 17th, 2014 6:23 PM

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